Be the goat
on prediction markets
The PolyGoat Playbook: 30+ specific, tested tactics for finding mispriced markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, Bitcoin and sports — and sizing them so you don't blow up.
Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Mispriced — market at 68%, fair value 82%
EXAMPLE 5-MIN MARKET
↑ +$340 from open
Example from the copy-trading research chapter
How It Works
From $10 to your first edge check
No software to learn and nothing to install. Pay once, read it, and start applying the checklists today.
Pay $10 once
No account, no password, no subscription. Checkout takes about thirty seconds.
Step 01
The playbook opens instantly
Six chapters, 30+ tactics: Polymarket, Kalshi, Bitcoin price markets, sports, pricing method and staking.
Step 02
Run the checklists on real markets
Price the market yourself, compare to the odds, demand a 5-point edge, size with quarter Kelly.
Step 03
Features
What's inside the playbook
Six chapters of specific, tested tactics — written for people who actually place trades.
Price the market before you look at the odds.
The core method: base rates, how far real news should move a probability, and the 5-point edge rule that filters out noise trades.
- Base-rate tables for elections, favourites and repeat events
- How much a poll, injury or headline is actually worth
- Write the exit before the entry — invalidation rules
Polymarket and Kalshi edges, venue by venue.
Where each platform is thin, slow or emotional — and the repeatable inefficiencies that come with it.
- Long-tail markets priced by a handful of traders
- Multi-outcome baskets that sum above 100¢
- Kalshi weather, CPI and data-driven contracts
Bitcoin price markets and soft sports lines.
Frameworks for short-dated BTC range markets, plus how to devig a sharp sportsbook line and use it as your fair value.
- When a 5-minute BTC range is genuinely mispriced
- Devigging step by step, with worked numbers
- Line-shopping and stale-number angles
Sizing that keeps you in the game.
The chapter most traders skip. Quarter-Kelly staking, bankroll caps, correlation limits and a copy-trading wallet research guide.
- Quarter-Kelly table capped at 5% of bankroll
- Correlation rules so one event can't wipe you
- How to vet a wallet before you mirror it
Free sample
Read three tactics before you pay
These are copied word-for-word out of the playbook. If they're useful, the other 30+ are worth $10.
Check multi-outcome sums
On markets with many candidates, add up every 'Yes' price. When the total is meaningfully above 100¢, shorting the whole basket is close to free money minus fees.
Sell overpriced tails
Contracts at 3-8¢ are chronically overpriced because people love lottery tickets. Selling the improbable side of dramatic events is one of the most durable edges on Polymarket.
Fade the news spike
A breaking headline routinely overshoots by 10-15¢ in the first 30 minutes, then mean-reverts. Set limit orders on the other side rather than chasing the move.
Pricing
One payment. Everything included.
$10 once. No subscription, no account — and a 7-day money-back guarantee.
No subscription. No renewals. No account needed.
- The full PolyGoat Playbook — instant access
- Polymarket & Kalshi edge strategies
- Bitcoin price-market frameworks
- Sports market angles (NFL, NBA, soccer)
- Bankroll & Kelly staking rules
- Mispricing checklists and entry/exit rules
- Copy-trading wallet research guide
- One-time $10 — no account, no subscription
✓ Instant access · ✓ 7-day money-back guarantee
FAQ
Common questions
The playbook gives you a method, not a guarantee. It shows you how to price a market yourself, spot the situations where the crowd is reliably wrong, and size positions so a bad run does not end you. No one can promise profits on prediction markets.
Free prediction market guides
Start here — no payment needed. Deep dives on Polymarket, Kalshi, Bitcoin price markets and sports markets.
Ready to get your edge?
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